Fremantle's loss and another Hawthorn win have brought their winning rates more into line with their scoring statistics, but Fremantle remains about 1 game ahead of what those statistics imply and Hawthorn remains about 2.5 games behind.
Read MoreThis week, the Eagles became the first team to crack 1,000 points for the season though for large parts of Sunday's game they seemed determined to follow George Hirst's advice to Wilfred Rhodes from over 100 years ago that they might "do it in singles".
Read MoreMatterOfStats' own Win Production Function now has it that eight teams have won or lost about a game or more than their Scoring Shot data would justify
Read MoreA Top 8 position on the competition ladder this week requires a better than 50% win-loss record and a percentage above 100. All eight teams meeting those criteria have a spot in the Top 8, and all 10 teams not meeting the criteria do not.
Read MoreOnly three teams now have Scoring data that suggests, according to the MatterOfStats' Win Production Function, that they've won a whole game more or less than they "should" have.
Read MoreThis week, as we review the Team Dashboard for Round 5, we'll analyse the correlations between the teams' competition ladder positions and their ranking on various metrics from the Dashboard.
Read MoreFremantle now heads the competition ladder as the only undefeated team, but sports a percentage of only 135, which is more in keeping with those teams below it on 3 and 1 records.
Read MoreIt is, of course, still very early days in the life of the 2015 season, but it's interesting nonetheless that we have a couple of teams with 2 and 1 records but startlingly divergent percentages.
Read MoreIt's only taken two rounds, but at least now we have the Top 8 that everyone was predicting pre-season
Read MoreBelow is the first Team Dashboard for 2015 and, in keeping with the custom of Round 1 blog posts this season, I'll spend a little time explaining what's in the Dashboard.
The top section is fairly self-explanatory and routine, and sets out details of each team's competition points, overall offensive and defensive statistics, and Win/Loss record. For now, teams are sorted in the customary manner but, once bye season has commenced, I sort teams on the basis of competition points earned as a proportion of possible points earned, which can sometimes lead to orderings that differ from the official ladders.
The middle section records information about various offensive and defensive metrics that I've found to be associated with teams' winning and losing records. This includes information about Scoring Shot production and concession, and the conversion of these Scoring Shots. This week, for example, we see that Adelaide has generated 35 Scoring Shots per game and conceded 18. Also, it's converted 60% of those Scoring Shot opportunities into goals while allowing its opponents to convert only 50% of their opportunities. On the far right are details about how a team's Offensive and Defensive Scoring metrics would be expected to convert into wins and losses (as per the Win Production Function estimated in this blog) and how the actual win and loss performance of each team has compared to these expectations. After just one game, these metrics don't mean much, but they will mean a lot more as the season progresses.
Lastly, at the bottom of the table is information about the quarter-by-quarter performances of each team. Adelaide, for example, has won 100% of its 1st, 2nd and 4th terms, but 0% of its 3rd terms. Its percentage in Quarter 1s (points scored divided by points conceded multiplied by 100) is 308, and in Quarter 3s is 51. Note that the 4th Quarter rankings of all teams are currently undefined because Sydney has yet to concede a point in final terms.
These quarter-by-quarter statistics also don't yet mean much after a single round, but will become more interesting and relevant as the season progresses.
With this, the final Team Dashboard for the year, I thought I'd compile one last summary comparing each team's final ladder position with its ranking on the major metrics on the MoS Team Dashboard:
As well, here are the rank correlations of team competition ladder positions with their ranking on the key metrics:
In summary then, competition ranking this season has been more about generating Scoring Shots and preventing opponents from doing the same, and less about the conversion rates of those Scoring Shots, whether your own or your opponent's. It's also been more about performing well in 1st and 4th Quarters than about performing well in 2nd and 3rd Quarters.
Eight teams' Scoring records this year would suggest that they "should" have won at least one game more or one game fewer than they actually have, according to the Win Production Function I estimated back in 2011. Six of those teams are in the mix for the Final 8 so this apparent under- or over-performance is material.
Read MoreIt's been a while since we looked at the rank correlations between team competition ladder positions and the various Team Dashboard metrics, so this week I thought it timely to do just that.
These rank correlations with ladder positions are as follows:
In summary then, this season has been less about Scoring Shot Conversion than it has been about generating (and preventing) Scoring Shots. Also, Q3 has not been the "Championship Quarter" so far this season, Q1 and Q4 both being far more important.
Time this week I think to review the Dashboard statistics for each team most at odds with their competition ladder position:
I'm not sure whether to attribute it to the unusual nature of the season or to a faltering ability of the MoS Win Production Function to map win entitlements to scoring statistics - who am I kidding, of course I reckon 'tis the season - but half of the teams in the competition have now won or lost 1 or more games more or fewer than that Win Production Function would suggest.
The unlucky ones, the teams that've won fewer games than might be expected, are:
The lucky ones are:
Hawthorn, meantime, are the only team to have registered over 2,000 points so far this season. They're also the only team to have kicked over 300 goals. Geelong, for what it's worth, have scored most behinds (234), though they're only one behind ahead of Port Adelaide and the Kangaroos, and one more ahead of Sydney.
The award for fewest goals conceded belongs to Fremantle (172), whose record is one goal superior to Sydney's. Fewest behinds have been conceded by Essendon (183), ahead of Port Adelaide (187), Hawthorn (190) and the lowly-ranked Western Bulldogs (192).
Something that struck me while reviewing the latest MoS Team Dashboard tonight was that Melbourne, despite sitting in second-last position on the competition ladder, have conceded fewer goals than the seven teams that sit immediately above them on that ladder, and than two (almost three) more teams that sit inside the Top 8. What's cruelled the Dees' chances has been an inability to score goals themselves: they've recorded 11 fewer goals than any other team in the competition.
It's also interesting to note that the Hawks have scored more than 50 goals more than the Swans, but conceded almost 40 goals more as well, and that Carlton, who sit 13th on the ladder, have scored as many or more goals than seven teams above them on the ladder, but have also conceded more goals than every team above them.
Lastly, a few items from the Quarter-by-Quarter Performance section of the Dashboard:
Things of note from this week's Team Dashboard:
The Swans this week extended their winning streak to 11 games, four better than any other team in the competition
Read MoreOnly three of the teams currently sitting in Finals positions have winning streaks that extend beyond a single game, if they've a winning streak at all. Four of the teams in that Top 8 have lost two of their last three games, and another, Geelong, has only a 5 and 4 record in its most-recent 9 games.
Based on the MatterOfStats Win Production Function, three teams have won 1 or more games fewer than would be expected based on their Scoring Statistics:
Three teams have, conversely, won 1 on more games more than would be expected:
The top 11 teams on the competition ladder now all have percentages greater than 100, while four of the bottom five teams have percentages under 80. Seven teams have won four or fewer of the 13 games they've played, which means that an 8 and 5 season record is currently necessary to place a team in the top 8. As well, the top 3 teams have registered almost 21% of the points scored during the season - almost exactly the same proportion as registered by the bottom 5 teams combined.
All of which suggests that, perhaps, the early-season hopes for a highly-competitive 2014 are not entirely panning out.
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