WoSHBODS tipped eight from nine winners this week, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 12.6 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11.7 points per game.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 62 from 90 (68%) for accuracy, 19.8 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE.

They are highly competitive numbers relative to the two bookmakers’.

TEAM STATISTICS

In the table at right, we have our now regular look at the MAEs by team for WoSHBODS, and find that West Coast’s, Adelaide’s, Port Adelaide’s, Fremantle’s, and Richmond’s margins have bern easiest to predict. In contrast, margins for Carlton, Melbourne, Geelong, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn have been hardest to predict.

Richmond is now joined by Collingwood as the only Victorian team with an MAE under the all-team average of 19.8 points per game, although North Melbourne do not miss by much.

There remains no clear relationship between teams’ ladder positions and the precision with which WoSHBODS is forecasting their game margins.

Next, the log probability scores associated with each team, based on the probability estimates that WoSHBODS has attached to them in each game.

Here we find that WoSHBODS has done best with Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Hawthorn, and worst with Carlton, Melbourne, Geelong, Fremantle, St Kilda, and Western Bulldogs, which are the only six teams that have generated negative log probability score for WoSHBODS.

That list of six teams includes the five lowest on MAE, Fremantle being the exception. Hawthorn is also an exception in that they are sixth-worst on MAE, but 5th-best on LPS.

WAGERS

WoSHBODS had another active week, but registered small losses for all three Funds. Overall, the loss for the Combined Portfolio came in at 1.4c, which left the Combined Portfolio up by 40c on the season from a +24% ROI and a 1.7 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Dashboard metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder are:

• MoS Win Production Function: +0.96

• % of Quarters Won: +0.96

• Points Conceded per Game: +0.94

• Goals Conceded per Game: +0.94

• Scoring Shots Conceded per Game: +0.94

• Goals Scored per Game: +0.85

• Q2 Performances: +0.84

• Points Scored per Game: +0.82

• Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.78

• Q3 Performances: +0.75

The metrics least correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.39

Geelong and St Kilda remain the teams most surprisingly not in the Top 8, given their scoring statistics. Essendon is probably the most surprising team in the Top 8, given their scoring statistics.

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It reveals that:

• There is only one undefeated team (North Melbourne) and no winless teams.

• North Melbourne are yet to lose a Q2

• Fremantle have outscored their opponents by almost 2.5:1 in Q4s

• Brisbane have outscored their opponents by 3:1 in Q2s

• North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by almost 4:1 in Q2s, over 4:1 in Q3s, and around 3.3:1 in Q1s.

• Collingwood have been outscored by their opponents by more than 8:1 in Q3s

• North Melbourne have converted at 56% and allowed their opponents to convert at only 41%, and have generated over 15 Scoring Shots per game while allowing their opponents to generate only about 6.

• Carlton have converted at 39% and allowed their opponents to convert at only 46.5%, and have generated only just over 8 Scoring Shots per game while allowing their opponents to generate over 14.

• GWS have scored only 13% of their points in Q2s, and Collingwood only 9% in Q3s

• Melbourne have scored in Q1 42% of all the points they’ve scored, and only 15% in Q2s. Carlton have recorded 34% in Q1s, and Essendon 34% in Q2s.

• West Coast have converted at 55% in Q1s and 29% in Q4s.

• GWS have converted at 33% in Q1s and 62% in Q4s.

• West Coast have converted at 58% in Q2s and 29% in Q4s.

• Sydney have converted at 65% in Q1s and 33% in Q2s.

• North Melbourne have allowed their opponents to convert at 73% in Q4s, and Western Bulldogs at 73% in Q2s.

• Essendon have allowed their opponents to convert at only 24% in Q3s, as have North Melbourne in Q2s.