Matter of Stats

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2024 - Round 28 : Overs/Unders

The MoS twins have the Grand Final producing about a goal more than do the Bookmakers.

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has a final, overs wager on the Grand Final.

The estimated overlay is about 6 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared again this week, with the TAB and Sportsbet sharing Game Margins, Sportsbet taking Home Team Scores, the TAB taking Away Team Scores, and MoSHBODS taking Game Totals.

The TAB continues to head all four metrics, with leads as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 13 points ahead of Sportsbet and 141 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 19 points ahead of Sportsbet and 35 ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 12 points ahead of Sportsbet and 31 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: TAB 16 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 90 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had wagers on just one game last week, a winning overs bet with Sportsbet, leaving it at 32 and 42 with the TAB, and at 22 and 14 with Sportsbet, for an overall 54 and 56 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 2 from 2 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 116 from 215 (54%) against TAB, and 118 from 215 (55%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed 2 from 2 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 108 from 215 (50%) against the TAB, and 109 from 215 (51%) against Sportsbet for the season.

Here’s the updated week-by-week forecasting performance of the twins, and the wagering performance of MoSSBODS.