One of a number of robust discussions I’ve had in the past on Twitter has been about what results constitute “upsets” in sport.

My contention - contentious for some - is that any underdog victory is an upset. You can then add a suitable adjective to convey the magnitude of surprise attached to the upset - hence the term “huge upset”, whose very existence suggests that others have recognised not all upsets are alike.

This week sees Sydney take on Brisbane Lions with Sydney opening as a one goal favourite and since shortening to about half that. Would their defeat be considered an upset? I’d say yes.

As you can see in the table above, history doesn’t give us a great deal to go on as this is only the second time since 2000 that the minor premier has taken on the team from 5th on the ladder in the Grand Final. On the previous occasion, which was in 2021, the minor premier prevailed and did so quite comfortably. But, only a few years earlier, the loser in that game, the Western Bulldogs, defeated the minor premiers after finishing 7th, so a Lions win wouldn’t be even as remarkable (or as much of an upset) as that.

Let’s see what the models think.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There only contrarianism this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters is coming from inside the MoS house with MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS both predicting relatively comfortable Lions wins by 2 or 3 goals.

That means we have a double-digit range of margin predictions, and a double-digit range of probability estimates.

The two Extreme Margin Predictors are MoSHBODS_Marg and Bookie_9, and the two Extreme Probability Predictors are MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO.

Given these forecasts we can proclaim:

• MoSHPlay_Marg as the winner of Head-to-Head Tipping, with RSMP_Simple taking 2nd, and RSMP_Weighted 3rd.

• RSMP_Simple as the winner of Margin Prediction, with Bookie_LPSO taking 2nd, and ENS_Linear 3rd, whatever the outcome, although a few will make the margins incredibly small.

• Bookie_LPSO as the winner of Probability Estimation, with Bookie_RE taking 2nd, and Bookie_RE 3rd, whatever the outcome.

WAGERS

The MoS twins have decided that large wagers are the fit and proper way to end season 2024.

Accordingly, Investors have a 7.7% wager on the Lions head-to-head at $2.15, and a 6.3% wagers on the Lions +5.5 at $1.90.

(Please click on the image at right to access a larger version.)

Investors therefore have the following potential scenarios:

• Result and Return
  Brisbane Lions win: +5.9c
  Brisbane Lions draw: +3.8c
  Brisbane Lions lose by 1 to 5 points: +1.8c
  Otherwise: -6c

A roughly 12c swing between best and worst feels like an apt scenario to complete the season.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.