In the context of a typical, recent Round 6, this week offers a set of relatively close games with an average expected margin of under 20 points per game, but in the context of this season, that's slightly less the case. 

Still, we have six games where the underdogs are priced at $3 or less, so it isn't exactly a round full of horrible mismatches, the only games truly threatening to be processions the Giants v Lions, and Crows v Suns match-ups where the handicaps are both over 6 goals.

So, what do the MoS forecasters think?

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are two games this week where there's more than token contrarian opinion amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, but only one where it's significant beyond the heuristic Tipsters of Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home.

That game is the North Melbourne v Port Adelaide game where each of C_Marg and the MoS twins can't fathom why the away team are the favourites, and where they all calling the game for the home team by between two and four goals. It's rare for the three of them to dissent this much together.

For C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg that dissention has contributed to a broader defiance that sees them with mean absolute deviations (MADs) of over 9 points and over 6 points per game, respectively. MoSHBODS_Marg is the least deviant on the Roos' game and is otherwise sufficiently mainstream in its views on the other games that its final MAD is only a pedestrian 3.9 points per game, a level that even Bookie_9 has been able to exceed.

At the game level, it's that Roos v Power clash that had racked up comfortably the largest MAD at 11.4 points per Predictor. That's easily a season record. Next highest are the MADs of the GWS v Brisbane Lions game (5.6) and the Geelong v Sydney game (4.0).

The mean expected margin across the nine games and across all Margin Predictors is 19.1 points per game, which is yet again this week a little lower than the TAB average of 19.5. 

C_Prob is again back to being the MAD-most Head-to-Head Probability Predictor this week, it having the highest or lowest probability estimate in six of the nine games. MoSSBODS_Prob has the second-highest MAD for the round, due mostly to its near 70% estimate of the Roos' chances.

That Roos' game is the only one with a MAD above 5%. Its MAD is 17.2% per Predictor. Which is mad.

This week will serve as a fascinating test of the efficacy of team-rating based forecasts. I would remind you that not all tests end well ...

WAGERS

Predictably, those Roos views have resulted in a pair of eye-catching head-to-head and line wagers, though they don't have a lot of company this week.

For the Head-to-Head Fund, its 6.1% wager on North Melbourne at $2.75 is joined only by a 0.9% wager on St Kilda at $3.55, while for the Line Fund, its 7.8% (sic) wager on North Melbourne +15.5 is ill-buttressed by a 2.1% bet on the Giants giving 38.5 points start, and a 0.9% bet on the Dogs giving 16.5 points start.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The ready reckoner for the 5 wagers is below (I'll talk to the over/under wagers in a separate blog).

Really, it's all about North Melbourne this week.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog.