Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW, now only for the Finals, (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:

• 35%: Melbourne

• 25%: Adelaide and North Melbourne

• 15%: Brisbane

• <1%: Geelong and Sydney

The market currently orders them this way:

• 32%: North Melbourne

• 25%: Brisbane

• 19%: Melbourne

• 15%: Adelaide

• 5%: Geelong

• 3%: Sydney

In percentage point terms, the largest differences are for Melbourne (about 15%), Brisbane and Adelaide (both about 10% points).