Matter of Stats

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2024 - Round 9 Results - Tide Turner?

Only four early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, and another snagged a draw, which kept accuracy levels generally low, the exception being MoSSBODS_Marg’s 6.5 from 8, which dragged it into a share of fourth on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. That Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie Knows Best, who maintains a one tip lead over ENS_Linear and MoSHPlay_Marg.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 4.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 52.1 from 81 (64%).

Margin prediction was a little weaker this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from Bookie_3’s 25.6 points per game to MoSHPlay_Marg’s 25.8, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 26.8 points per game, which is up by almost 7 points per game on last week.

Bookie_3’s performance allowed it to regain top spot ahead of Bookie_LPSO, while other moves saw RSMP_Simple take 3rd from ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Weighted take 7th from Bookie_9.

MoSHPlay_Marg remains best of the MoS trio and is now about 14-and-a-half goals off the lead.

Log probability scores were all very slightly positive this week except and best for MoSSBODS_Prob. Bookie_LPSO retained 1st place ahead of Bookie_RE. Worst is still MoSSBODS_Prob, who lies in 6th. MoSHPlay_Prob, still in 4th, remains the best of the MoS trio.

WAGERING

Round 9 proved to be the best for Investors all season, as all three Funds finished in green ink for the round.

Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished up by almost 7c, which leaves it down now by just under 8c on the season, that from a -5% ROT on a 1.5 turn.