2024 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders
Overall, the MoS twins are expecting higher totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, but they do have a mixture of higher and lower figures for individual games.
There is, again, a moderate level of agreement about this week’s highests and lowests:
HIGHEST SCORING GAME
MoS twins: Richmond v Sydney
Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v West Coast
LOWEST SCORING GAME
MoS twins: Fremantle v Adelaide
Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v Collingwood, and Essendon v St Kilda
HIGHEST SCORING TEAM
All: Western Bulldogs
LOWEST SCORING TEAM
All: West Coast
WAGERS
Investors have three wagers this week, two overs and one under, after a third over was passed due to forecast rain.
The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 8 to 10.5 points, and the wager sizes from 3.4% to 4.9% accordingly.
PREVIOUS RESULTS
Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were again shared around in Round 2:
Game Margins: Sportsbet
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: TAB
Game Totals: MoSSBODS
The only season-long title switching hands this week was the Game Margin title moving from MoSHBODS to Sportsbet. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:
Game Margins: Sportsbet 2 points ahead of the TAB and 12 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 1 point ahead of MoSHBODS and 6 points ahead of Sportsbet
Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 2 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 5 points ahead of the TAB
Game Totals: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB and 11 points ahead of MoSSBODS
MoSSBODS had four wagers last week, two unders with the TAB that finished 1 and 1, an overs with the TAB that was a loser, and a lone winning unders with Sportsbet.
It ended then at 3 and 3 with the TAB, and at 1 and 1 with Sportsbet, for an overall 4 and 4 record.
Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 4 from 8 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS landed 3 from 8 against both bookmakers. That took MoSSBODS to 10 from 21 (48%) against the TAB and 12 from 21 (57%) against Sportsbet, and took MoSHBODS to 8 from 21 (38%) against both bookmakers.