Welcome back

The men’s 2024 AFL season starts off weirdly in at least three ways: there are only four games in the opening round, Carlton and Richmond don’t face one another, and the round is numbered 0.

There are, at this stage, four home team favourites, including the Giants over the 2023 Premiers by about half a goal. The strongest of the favourites are the Lions who are currently expected to defeat the Blues by just over 3 goals.

Let’s see what the MoS forecasters think.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Half of this week’s underdog support comes mostly from Consult The Ladder since, somewhat remarkably, three of the four favourites finished lower on the ladder in 2023 than did the teams they are facing.

The other half comes from the RSMP twins and ENS_Linear in the Sydney v Melbourne game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in the Suns v Tigers, and the Giants v Pies games with one or other of the MoS twins as Extreme Predictor in both games.

MoSHBODS_Marg, in particular, has a very different view of the Giants’ chances. It has them winning by over three goals, which is about two-and-a-half more than the bookmakers think.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges, and they are the same two games as listed above.

MoSHBODS_Prob is also a standout in that Giants game and estimates the home team’s chances about 17% points higher than do the bookmakers.

That should make for some interesting wagering activity.

Speaking of which …

WAGERS

Investors will have two head-to-head and two line wagers in Round 0, the former representing almost 9% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the latter just over 8% of the original Line Fund..

(Note that the wagering strategy has changed significantly this year, as per this earlier blog.)

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The impacts on the price of the Combined Portfolio of the various possible results are as follows.

SYDNEY v MELBOURNE

• Sydney wins: 1.6% x 0.85 x 25% = +0.3c

• Sydney draws: 1.6% x (1.85/2-1) x 25% = -0.03c

• Sydney loses: -1.6% x 25% = -0.4c

GOLD COAST v RICHMOND

• Ricmond win, draw, or lose by 13 points or less: 3.2% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.9c

• Otherwise: -3.2% x 65% = -2.1c

GWS v RICHMOND

• GWS win by 4 or more points: 7.2% x 0.79 x 25% + 5.1% x 0.9 x 65% = +4.4c

• GWS win by 1 to 3 points: 7.2% x 0.79 x 25% - 5.1% x 65% = -1.9c

• GWS draws: 7.2% x (1.79/2 - 1) x 25% - 5.1% x 65% = -3.5c

• GWS loses: -7.2% x 25% - 5.1% x 65% = -5.1c

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 7c, while a worst case set would snip just under 8c off the price. That’s a huge amount of exposure for just four games and in an opening round.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring, which has fuelled all of this wagering action.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.