2023 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders
The MoS twins are, yet again, forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, but only by about half a goal a game.
As highests and lowests, we have:
HIGHEST SCORING GAME
MoS twins: Port Adelaide v GWS
Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v Adelaide
LOWEST SCORING GAME
MoSSBODS: West Coast v Fremantle
MoSHBODS: St Kilda v Richmond
Bookmakers: Colingwood v Geelong
HIGHEST SCORING TEAM
MoSSBODS: Brisbane Lions
MoSHBODS and Sportsbet: Fremantle
TAB: Essendon, Brisbane Lions, and Fremantle
LOWEST SCORING TEAM
All: West Coast
WAGERS
Investors have three wagers this week, all unders, and would also have had another overs bet but for the forecast in the Port Adelaide v GWS game.
The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 7 and 15 points.
PREVIOUS RESULTS
Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared this week between the MoS twins:
Game Margins: MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS
Game Totals: MoSSBODS
The season-long round win tallies are now
Game Margins: TAB (6.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSSBODS (6) / Sportsbet (4.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSHBODS (4)
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie)
Away Team Scores: TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / MoSSBODS (4)
Game Totals: MoSSBODS (7) / TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)
The round results left two of the four titles in the same hands as last week, and saw MoSSBODS snatch two titles away from the TAB. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:
Game Margins: TAB 63 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 71 points ahead of Sportsbet
Home Team Scores: TAB 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 20 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 8 points ahead of the TAB and 11 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: MoSSBODS 13 points ahead of the TAB and 33 points ahead of Sportsbet
MoSSBODS had three wagers last week, all unders against Sportsbet, and landed 2 from 3..
It ended still at 15 and 14 with the TAB, and at 18 and 11 with Sportsbet, for an overall 33 and 25 record, comprising a 54% win rate on overs and a 58% win rate on unders.
Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 9 against both bookmakers and MoSHBODS landed 4 from 9 against both bookmakers.
That moved MoSSBODS to an 92 from 180 (51%) record against the TAB, and an 90 from 180 (50% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to an 92 from 180 (51%) record against the TAB, and a 91 from 180 (51%) record against Sportsbet.
ACCURACY by estimated overlay
Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.
For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.