No game this week is expected to be won by more than 25 points, and seven of them are expected to be won by under 16 points, despite the fact that three games involve teams separated by 8 or more ladder positions. The six remaining games involve teams separated by no more than 4 ladder positions, two of which are the games with the largest lines. Once again, ladder position is a poor indicator of relative ability this year.

The all-game average expected margin is 14.4 points per game, which is up by about 3 points per game on last week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week is confined to Home Sweet Home in three games, Consult the Ladder in two games, and the MoS twins in one game each.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games this week: Roos v Eagles (20 points), Lions v Giants (19 points), Tigers v Saints (16 points), and Crows v Dogs (15 points).

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_9 and RSMP_Linear in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only three games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Roos v Eagles (21% points), Lions v Giants (16% points), and Tigers v Saints (12% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in seven games this week, and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

Investors’ eggs are far more strewn about the basket this week, with eight wagers covering five different teams.

The bookmaker dancing was quite protacted this week, the details of which are as follows:

• West Coast: Wanted 4.6% at $2.44. Received 4.5% at $2.44.

• Brisbane Lions: Wanted 6.3% at $1.90 -20.5. Received 1.4% at $1.90 -20.5, 1.4% at $1.90 -21.5, 1.4% at $1.90 -22.5, and 1.1% at $1.90 -23.5

• West Coast: Wanted 7.1% at $1.90 +10.5. Received 3.2% at $1.90 +10.5, 1.4% at $1.90 +8.5, 1.4% at $1.90 +7.5

• Richmond: Wanted 5.0% at $1.90 +25.5. Received 1.4% at $1.90 +25.5, 1.1% at $1.90 +24.5, 1.6% at $1.90 +23.5

In total, Investors have just under 14% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on three teams, and just under 20% of the original Line Fund on the same three teams plus two more.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner reveals that West Coast carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win and a loss by 11 points or more represents 10.1% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by Brisbane Lions (7.8%), then Richmond (7.2%), then Western Bulldogs (3.4%), and, lastly, Gold Coast (1.7%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 15c, while a worst case set would snip almost 16c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.