The TAB Bookmaker has another broad range of expected margins this week, with a low of 2.5 points and a high of 29.5 points.

All but two of the contests have expected margins under three goals, which has resulted in an all-game average of 14.6 points per game, the lowest this season since Round 3, and the third-lowest for a Round 7 in the history that I have.

Only two games are expected to be won by more than 17 points: Melbourne over Hawthorn, and Carlton over North Melbourne.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Eight of the nine favourites this week are home teams, so not even Home Sweet Home is offering much contrarianism, this week. What there is comes from Home Sweet Home in that single game, Consult The Ladder in two games, and RSMP_Simple also in just one game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in just three games, including a 14-point range in the Geelong v Fremantle game, and a 13-point range in the Carlton v North Melbourne game. MoSSBODS_Marg represents one end of both of these larger ranges.

MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme margin forecasts in six games, and RSMP_Weighted in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are no games with double-digit percentage point probability estimate ranges, with the largest at just under 10% points being the Carlton v North Melbourne game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, Bookie_LPSO in five, and Bookie_OE in four.

WAGERS

High levels of agreement between the MoS twins and the bookmakers has made for very limited wagering this week. Investors face just a single head-to-head bet on Sydney at $1.80, a single line bet on Geelong giving 14.5 points start and paying $1.90.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Swans bet will, barring a draw, either add 0.6c to the value of the Combined Portfolio, or subtract 0.8c from it, and the Cats bet will either add 0.7c or subtract 0.8c from it.

Individually, the line bets range in size from 1.9% to 3.7% of the original Line Fund, and the head-to-head bets from 0.9% to 5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by just over 5c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by just over 6c.

Port Adelaide easily carries the most risk this week, with the difference between a Port win by over 3 goals and a Port loss representing just under a 7c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Fremantle representing a potential swing of just under 4c, and Gold Coast a swing of just under 1c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.