Not that the quality of a game is always about the ladder-proximity of the opponents, but this week we have:

• 3 games where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder

• 1 game where they're 2 places apart

• 1 game where they're 4 places apart

• 1 game where they're 5 places apart

• 2 games where they're 12 places apart

• 1 game where they're 13 places apart

That’s a mixed bag, and the TAB Bookmaker expected margins reflect that, with five of them single-digit, two of them about 2-and-a-half goals, one of them 5-and-a-half goals, and the last of them about 9-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 17.1 points per game, which is slightly below average by general Round 17 standards, but the highest since 2019. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.3 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Five Head-to-Head Tipsters are offering contrarian tips this week, with four from Home Sweet Home, two from each of the MoS twins, and one each from Consult The Ladder and ENS_Linear.

The Margin Predictors have conspired to produce four games with double-digit forecast ranges, the largest being 20 points in the Pies v Roos game, followed by 17 points in the Suns v Tigers game, 16 points in the Eagles v Blues game, and 14 points in the Lions v Dons game.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme margin forecasts in six games, and Bookie_9 in five.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is 18% points for the Gold Coast v Richmond game, followed by 10% points for the West Coast v Carlton game.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, and Bookie_LPSO in five.

WAGERS

There are only four bets on three different teams this week, two head-to-head bets totalling 3.4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and two line bets totalling 2.8% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The possible outcomes in terms of the Combined Portfolio are as follows:

Geelong v Melbourne

• Geelong wins: 1.8 x 1.1 x 0.3 = +0.6c

• Geelong draws: 1.8 x (2.1 - 1)/2 x 0.3 = +0.0c

• Geelong loses: -1.8 x 0.3 = -0.5c

Gold Coast v Richmond

• Gold Coast wins: 1.6 x 1.25 x 0.3 + 2.5 x 0.9 x 0.65 = +2.0c

• Gold Coast draws: 1.6 x (2.25/2 - 1) x 0.3 + 2.5 x 0.9 x 0.65 = +1.5c

• Gold Coast loses by 1 to 7 points: -1.6 x 0.3 + 2.5 x 0.9 x 0.65 = +1.0c

• Gold Coast loses by 8 points or more: -1.6 x 0.3 - 2.5 x 0.65 = -2.1c

West Coast v Carlton

• Carlton wins by 16 points or more: 0.3 x 0.9 x 0.65 = +0.2c

• Otherwise: -0.3 x 0.65 = -0.2c

So, best case is a gain of 2.8c, and worst case a loss of 2.8c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.