Matter of Stats

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2018 - Round 1 Results - Better for the Run

With seven favourites and one equal-favourite emerging victorious from the embers of Round 1, it was fairly predictable that we'd see strong performances across the board from a number of MoS forecasters.

ENS_Linear did best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, bagging eight along with BKB, who benefited from the tie-breaking rule in the Dees v Cats clash where we had those equal-favourites. Worst were C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg who each registered six correct tips from nine, which are sure to be highly acceptable scores at other points in the season.

The all-Tipster average was seven from nine.

Bookie_3 headed the Margin Predictors with a mean absolute error (MAE) of just 18.7 points per game, putting it a little over 5 points clear of Bookie_Hcap and only slightly further ahead of Bookie_LPSO and Bookie_9. The all-Predictor average MAE for the week was 20.6 points per game, which is a good result in an historical context no matter how you slice it.

The bookie-based Head-to-Head Probability Predictors also did well, with all three currently filling the top three spots on the ladder. 

WAGERS

Investors suffered a small loss for the week as both the Head-to-Head and Overs/Unders Fund surrendered cash to the bookmakers.

The Line Fund did what it could to limit the damage, though its 3c profit was only good enough to keep the loss a tick below 1c.

It's a long season ...