It's almost 9:30pm on Thursday night and, though there are now Line and SuperMargin markets for the Giants' and for the Suns' games, there are no Head-to-Head markets for either. So, not for the first time this year - and probably not for the last - I've inferred them.

In the Cats v Giants game the Cats are giving 80.5 start, so I've assumed a Head-to-Head market of $1.01/$21 and, in the Pies v Suns game the Pies are giving 70.5 start, so I've assumed a Head-to-Head market of $1.01/$17. These head-to-head markets are consistent with historical precedent given the line market handicaps but, in truth, there's not been much consistency in the link between the head-to-head and line markets in games with a rank outsider.

None of this would matter if we were wagering only in the head-to-head and line markets, since the Head-to-Head and Line Fund algorithms don't much differentiate between prices of, say, $17 and $34 for an underdog, but the Margin Fund algorithm is particularly sensitive to this choice, and in a non-linear fashion. That's why, at $1.01/$17 we're on the Pies to win by 30-39 points, but at $1.01/$21 we're on the Cats to win by only 20-29 points. Such is the price we pay for asking a non-linear model's opinion about a game with prices outside the range on which it's been trained. It's like asking a management consultant for his opinion about the design of your new company logo: it's clearly outside his field of expertise but you can be certain he'll express a firm opinion nonetheless. The good news is that the Margin Fund only wagers 2.5% at a time, so no-one can get too hurt - and the upside is considerable. I actually don't mind the Pies wager at $11 on them to win by only 30-39 points, but the idea of the Cats defeating the Giants by merely 4-5 goals strains credibility.

Anyway, here's what we have this week - 1 Head-to-Head, 4 Line, and 6 SuperMargin wagers:

The head-to-head wager on the Saints on Friday night is our 4th such wager on them in the five rounds that the Head-to-Head Fund has been active, the previous three outlays having netted Investors the tiniest of profits. This week's wager, at over 10.5% of the Fund, is by far the largest we've ventured this season and will leave the Head-to-Head Fund either mildly in red or decisively in blank ink once it's determined.

In other wagering news, all four line bets are on favourites - ranging from the narrow in the form of the Saints giving 2.5 points start, to the raging in the form of the Pies giving 70.5 points start - as are the half-dozen SuperMargin wagers.

Collectively, the round's activities amount to this: 

A Saints win on Friday night by between 3 and 9 points would be sublime, as would a Cats win on Saturday by between 20 and 29 points, or a Hawks win by between 40 and 49 points.

The Head-to-Head Tipsters, taken as a group, certainly see the Saints v Tigers game as being a close-run thing inasmuch as 7 believe the Saints will prevail and 6 avow that the Tigers will. They're also unanimous in their support of the Cats, and 8-5 in favour of the Hawks toppling the Roos.

In other games they're unanimous supporters of the Dons and the Pies, near unanimous in their support of the Swans and the Eagles, and 9-4 advocates of the Blues and the Crows.

The Margin Predictors are, almost predictably now, unanimously behind the favourites in every game, the only exception being Combo_NN1's belief in the underdog but home team Fremantle. Scanning the range of predicted victory margins, it's only this Freo game and the Saints v Tigers game that are foreseen as providing us with any serious contest.

In contrast, and relative to the TAB bookmaker, the Probability Predictors rate the Saints as very strong chances. They also rate the Hawks, the Swans, the Blues, the Eagles and the Pies as better chances than their head-to-head prices imply. 

The Line Fund algorithm rates the Dons as the bet of the round in the line market, and also strongly favours the Blues, Hawks, Eagles and Saints. The Pies and the Cats, it reckons, are only barely better than even money chances, while the Freo v Crows and Swans v Dogs games are virtual coin tosses given the handicaps on offer.