This week we'll take one last (or maybe second-to-last) look at team winning rates and how they compare with what MoS' Win Production Function would suggest they should be given each team's Scoring Shot statistics.

Four teams have won one or more games more than would be expected:

• St Kilda (+2.2 games)
• Hawthorn (+1.9 games)
• Western Bulldogs (+1.9 games)
• Richmond (+1.1 games)

Six teams have won one or more games fewer than would be expected:

• Port Adelaide (-2.6 games)
• GWS (-2.1 games)
• Fremantle (-1.7 games)
• Melbourne (-1.4 games)
• Adelaide (-1.2 games)
• Sydney (-1.0 games).

The Win Production Function would have the teams ordered as follows (with their competition ladder position shown in brackets):

1. Adelaide (2)
2. GWS (5)
3. Sydney (1)
4. Geelong (3)
5. West Coast (6)
6. Hawthorn (4)
7. Western Bulldogs (7)
8. Kangaroos (8)
9. Port Adelaide (11)
10. Melbourne (10)
11. Collingwood (12)
12. St Kilda (9)
13. Richmond (13)
14. Carlton (14)
15. Gold Coast (15)
16. Fremantle (16)
17. Essendon (18)
18. Brisbane Lions (17)