Matter of Stats

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MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 15

The latest Team Dashboard follows.

Based purely on Scoring Shots statistics and the Win Production Function I derived last year, five teams have won one or more games fewer than their statistics would suggest they "should" have, and three teams have won one or more games "extra".

Specifically, 

  • St Kilda has won 2.7 games fewer, Hawthorn 2.1, Carlton 1.2, Gold Coast 1.1, and Richmond 1.0 games fewer
  • Collingwood has won 1.4 games more, the Dogs 1.3, and Adelaide 1.1 games more

A competition ladder based on the expected wins from the Win Production Function would have the same teams in the top 8 as we have now in the competition proper, though ordered as follows (teams' actual ladder positions are in brackets after their name): Hawthorn (5th), Sydney (1st), West Coast (2nd), Essendon (6th), Adelaide (3rd), St Kilda (8th), Collingwood (4th), Geelong (7th).