In a post for the Statistical Analysis journal in 2009 I investigated whether it was better for a team to lead or to trail narrowly at the end of a quarter. This analysis was motivated by a journal article investigating the phenomenon for NCAA basketball, which found that teams in this competition that trailed narrowly at half-time went on to win at a rate statistically significantly greater than 50%. I found only scant evidence for this in VFL/AFL football.

Across the entire history of VFL/AFL football there was no evidence at all for the hypothesis, and it was only when I confined my attention to the period 1980 to 2009 that I found that teams trailing by just 1 point at quarter time did go on to win more than half the time.

This year, however, the story's been very different:

• In games where there's been a clear leader at quarter time, teams that have led by 11 points or fewer have only a 50% winning record (35 wins and 35 losses). This compares to a 62% winning record for teams similarly placed in games during season 2010.
• Further, in games where there's been a clear leader at half time, teams that have led by 11 points or fewer have only a 49% winning record (28 wins, 29 losses and 1 draw). This compares to a 57% winning record for teams similarly placed in games during season 2010.
• Finally, in games where there's been a clear leader at three-quarter time, teams that have led by 6 points or fewer have only a 45% winning record (9 wins, 11 losses and 2 draws). This compares to a 71% winning record for teams similarly placed in games during season 2010.

More evidence that leads are far less safe this season than they have been in seasons past.

Anyway, to the MAFL Team Dashboard: