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2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 8

Tony Corke

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Geelong and Sydney: 95%+ chances of being finalists; 70-80% chances of Top 4; 25-35% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne and GWS: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 50-60% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton and Collingwood: 65-70% chances of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 3% to 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon, and Brisbane Lions: 50-55% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, and St Kilda: 15-30% chance of being finalists; 2-5% chance of Top 4; very small chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Hawthorn, West Coast and Richmond: 1-4% chances of being finalists; none to very small chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  7. North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.

There were a few large movements in teams’ Final chances this week, with Port Adelaide’s, Gold Coast’s and Western Bulldogs’ Finals chances falling most substantially (c 10 to 18% points), and Collingwood’s, Fremantle’s and the Brisbane Lions’ rising most substantially (c 11 to 15% points).

There are now 10 teams with a 50% or better chance of playing Finals, and seven teams with about a 20% or higher chance of finishing Top 4. There are also four teams with about a 10% or better chance of taking the Minor Premiership.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for these pre-season simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:

  • How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for

  • How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position

Overall ladder uncertainty fell a little more this week, with the majority of teams now effectively fighting for between 11 and 13.5 ladder positions, and most ladder positions having 11 to 13 teams effectively fighting for them.

On the teams side, the largest exceptions are North Melbourne, Richmond, Geelong, West Coast, Sydney, and Hawthorn, while on the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions are 1st, 2nd, 16th, 17th, and 18th.

Tthe ladder positions with the most uncertainty remain those in the middle of the table, from about 4th to 13th.

We also see that the average team is effectively competing for about 9.5 positions, and the average ladder position has about 9.5 teams competing for it.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.

Based on the simulations, we can say that:

  • For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 22% had 12 wins (down 2%), 39% had 13 wins (up 3%), and 13% had 12.5 wins (also, 3% had 11 wins, and 13% had 12.5 wins).

  • For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 32% had 15 wins (no change), 28% had 16 wins (no change), and 13% had 15.5 wins (also, 7% had 14 wins, and 7% had 14.5 wins).

(Note that the draw has made any changes in the whole number of wins percentages a bit more difficult to interpret. That said, I reckon 13 wins will be needed to play Finals )

Looked at another way:

  • For teams finishing win 11 wins: 2% made Finals (down 0.5%)

  • For teams finishing win 12 wins: 24% made Finals (down 4%)

  • For teams finishing win 13 wins: 76% made Finals (down 3%)

  • For teams finishing win 14 wins: 98% made Finals and 7% finished Top 4 (down 1%)

  • For teams finishing win 15 wins: 45% finished Top 4 (down 1%)

  • For teams finishing win 16 wins: 88% finished Top 4 (up 2%)

Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis:

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are that:

  • There’s still only about a 1-in-3 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (up by about 1% on last week)

  • There’s still only about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up by about 1% on last week)

  • There’s still about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up by only about 1.5% on last week)

FINALS CHANCES

Finally, here’s what the simulations provide by way of finals-related probabilities.

Melbourne continues to fare well in Grand Finals because of the likelihood that it will meet an interstate team and because of its relatively high VPV there.