2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 23
This year’s post Round 23 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Sydney: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; near certain of being Minor Premier
Port Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier
GWS: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Geelong: certain of being finalists; 90% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs: 95-99% chances of being finalists; 0.3-1% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Carlton: 80% chances of being finalists; tiny chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Fremantle: 25% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier
(NB Whilst Collingwood are, mathematically, capable of playing Finals, the circumstances required to make that occur are extremely unlikely to occur. The best chance is for Fremantle and Carlton to lose, and for Collingwood to win, and for the Carlton and Collingwood margins to be such that Collingwood closes a percentage gap of almost 11. That would require the respective margins to total something close to 200 points.)
LADDER FINISHES
The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.
There was only one large movement in a team’s Final chances this week:
Fremantle -31% points
In terms of Top 4 chances we had:
Brisbane Lions -57%
GWS +39%
PA +20%
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for the latest simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:
How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for
How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position
Overall uncertainty fell sharply again this week, with the 11 least certain teams now effectively fighting for between only about 2 or 3 ladder positions, and the 11 least certain ladder positions having only about 2 to 3 teams effectively fighting for them.
On the teams Sydney, Adelaide and West Coast all enjoy the most certainty, as do ladder positions 1st, 15th, and 16th.
The average team is effectively competing for about 2 positions, and the average ladder position has about 2 teams competing for it.
WINS AND LADDER POSITION
Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.
Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis for all 18 ladder positions.
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.
So, our final estimates are that:
There’s now less than a 1-in-4 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (it’s down by about 16% points on last week)
There’s now only about a 1-in-50 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down by almost 30% points on last week)
There’s now about a 1-in-20 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up by about 4% points on last week)
TOP 2s, 4s, and GRAND FINALS
Another look this week at the most-likely Top 2 and Top 4 teams, in order, at the end of the home and away season, and at the most likely Grand Final pairings.
Top 2s
A Sydney/Port Adelaide pairing, in either order, now accounts for over 80% of all simulation replicates, with a Sydney/GWS pairing in that order accounting for just over another 12%, and a Sydney/Geelong pairing, in that order, accounting for another 5%.
The only other pairing that occurred even once was Port Adelaide/Sydney, which turned up with an oyster that subsequently revealed a pearl.
Top 4s
The most-common quartet of SYD/PA/GEE/GWS appeared in almost 42% of replicates, a little ahead of SYD/PA/GWS/GEE, which accounted for another roughly 32%.
The next most common ordering was SYD/GWS/PA/GEE, which accounted for just shy of another 9%.
The Top 10 quartets account for 99.8% of replicates. Altogether, only 15 different ordered sets occurred at least once across the 10,000 simulation replicates.
Top 8s
We’re now at that stage of the season where the number of possible ordered Top 8s is relatively small.
In fact, across the 10,000 replicates, only 171 orderings appeared at least once, the Top 10 of which appear below and account for over 70% of all orderings.
(Only 5 of the orderings represented a different set of 8 teams).
Grand Finals
The most common Grand Final pairings, ignoring order, see Port Adelaide take on Sydney, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, or Hawthorn, and account for almost 55% of all replicates.
Sydney appears in the next three pairings, which account for about another 14% of replicates.
The Top 10 pairings, ignoring order, account for just over 76% of replicates and, altogether, 36 different pairs occurred at least once across the 10,000 simulation replicates, 22 of them in at least 50 replicates.
FINALS CHANCES
Finally, here’s what the simulations provide by way of finals-related probabilities.
A quick look at the AFL Futures markets would suggest that there might be a bit of value
IN THE MISS FINALS MARKET ON
Dockers (small edge)
IN THE FLAG MARKET ON
Hawks (small margin), Power and Dogs (healthy margin)
Your regular reminder that I do not bet on these Futures markets.