The most-recent MoSHBODS-based hot simulations now have Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, and GWS as near-equal Flag favourites.

Brisbane Lions are, narrowly, most favoured, at about 1-in-3 chances, ahead of Collingwood and GWS both at about 3-in-10 chances.

These probabilities are quite different to the market’s partly because MoSHBODS has the Lions as stronger favourites against Carlton than the market does, and also has GWS as slight favourites over Collingwood.

Collingwood and GWS both win about 60% of the Grand Finals they make, while Brisbane Lions and Carlton only win about 40%.

At left are the estimated probabilities for each of the 4 possible Grand Final pairings, which range in value from about 2-in-25 to 4-in-9.

Brisbane Lions figure in the top two most-likely pairings, Collingwood in the 1st and the 3rd, GWS in the 2nd and the 4th, and Carlton in the bottom two.