The WoSHBODS algorithm is very sensitive to Round 1 results - far moreso than MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS - on the basis that history strongly suggests that the previous season’s performances are somewhat less relevant in the following AFLW season than they are in AFLM.
Somewhat comfortingly, these largish adjustments have led to forecasts with seven of the nine WoSHBODS-favoured teams also being the bookmaker favourites.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped only 3 winners this week, just one fewer than the experts, and also recorded a Margin MAE of 39.5 points per game and a Totals MAE of 23.1 points per game. Very much a calibration round.
Read MoreI think it’s incontrovertible to acknowledge that, at this nascent stage of the women’s competition, forecasting near-term results early in a season can’t reliably be based on history. WoSHBODS therefore struggles at this point to provide forecasts about which it can feel anything like confidence but, nonetheless, here they are.
Read MoreA scoreless final term from the Roos consigned Investors’ head-to-head and line bets to the bin, and saw WoSHBODS finish the season with an accuracy of 70.2%, a Margin MAE of 18.9 points per game, and a Totals MAE of 17.9 points per game.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has, for a while now, felt quite differently about the Lions’ chances, and that has manifested this week in a GF forecast that sees the Roos winning by about 11 points.
Read MoreBoth favourites won this week, although only narrowly, and WoSHBODS was tipping both and so moved to 71% accuracy for the season. It also recorded a Margin MAE of just 7.5 points per game and a Totals MAE of 7 points per game. That took it to a season long 18.8 Margin MAE, and 18.1 Totals MAE.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken the overs in the Lions v Cats game.
WoSHBODS, as the table below records, has an overall 58% win rate on overs/unders betting this season. That is very much due to Sportsbet wagers, however, which have been winners 75% of the time compared to 45% of the time with TAB wagering.
WoSHBODS is a little more mainstream in its forecasting this week and predicts a comfortable Brisbane win and a narrow North Melbourne win.
Read MoreWoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:
1-in-3: Adelaide and North Melbourne
1-in-4: Brisbane
1-in-16: Geelong
WoSHBODS, again this week, opted for a full house of favourites, and so finished with just one tip correct from two. It also recorded a Margin MAE of 27.3 points per game and a Totals MAE of 5 points per game. That took it to a season long 70% accuracy, 19.1 Margin MAE, and 18.3 Totals MAE.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken the overs in the Dees v Cats game.
WoSHBODS has very different ideas about the relative chances of the four teams in this week’s semi-finals, which sees it forecasting comfortable wins by both favourites.
Part of the reason for this is that, as currently parameterised, WoSHBODS does not update team ratings after Round 8 - a decision that will be reviewed in light of the new data provided by the 2023 season.
Read MoreBelow is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW, now only for the Finals, (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
Read MoreOnly one of the four favourites won this week, and WoSHBODS, having gone favourite-heavy - usually not a bad strategy in Finals - therefore tipped just 1 winner. It also recorded a Margin MAE of 28.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11 points per game. That took it to a season long 71% accuracy, 18.9 Margin MAE, and 18.6 Totals MAE.
Read MoreInvestors are, again, on the overs in the second game today
Investors are on the overs in the second game today
It’s wall-to-wall favourites for WoSHBODS this week, and all of them forecast to win by larger margins than the markets think.
Read MoreWoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:
40%: Melbourne
20-30%: Adelaide and North Melbourne
10%: Brisbane
0.5-1%: Gold Coast, Geelong
Essentially 0%: Essendon, Sydney
WoSHBODS tipped just 6 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 29.6 points per game and a Totals MAE of 20 points per game. That took it to a season long 73% accuracy, 18.5 Margin MAE, and 18.9 Totals MAE.
Read MoreTwo unders bets today to complete the dance card.
Four bets today - two unders and two overs - and there would have been a fifth, another overs, but for the Brisbane forecast.
Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 99%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, andNorth Melbourne
Tier 2 (99%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane
Tier 3 (85-90% chances to play Finals and 25-50% chances of Top 4): Essendon and Gold Coast
Tier 4 (90% chances to play Finals and 0% chances of Top 4): Geelong
Tier 5 (40-50% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, St Kilda, and Sydney
Tier 6 (<2% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Carlton, and Richmond
Tier 7 (0% chances to play Finals): Hawthorn, GWS, West Coast, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs
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