Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW, produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post.

WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:

• 1-in-3: Adelaide and North Melbourne

• 1-in-4: Brisbane

• 1-in-16: Geelong

The market currently orders them this way:

• 32%: Brisbane

• 28%: Adelaide

• 27%: North Melbourne

• 13%: Geelong

In percentage point terms, the largest differences are for Adelaide (about 8% points), then Brisbane and Geelong (both about 6% points).