Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW, now only for the Finals, (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:

• 40%: Melbourne

• 20-30%: Adelaide and North Melbourne

• 10%: Brisbane

• 0.5-1%: Gold Coast, Geelong

• Essentially 0%: Essendon, Sydney

The market currently orders them this way:

• 35%: Melbourne

• 25%: Adelaide

• 17%: Brisbane

• 12%: North Melbourne

• 3-5%: Gold Coast, Geelong

• 2%: Essendon, Sydney

In percentage point terms, the largest differences are for Brisbane and North Melbourne (both 9% points)