Matter of Stats

View Original

AFLW 2023 - Round 2

After an excellent start to the 2023 AFLW season, WoSHBODS is back for Week 2 after having made some sizeable changes to individual team ratings, which is its habit now in the early rounds of new seasons.

One result of those changes is that we have some very large forecast margins this week, including four games with expected margins of about four goals or more. There are also, however, four games with expected margins of about a goal or less, and it’s on these games that the week’s tipping accuracy is most likely to hinge.

On the wagering front we have five head-to-head bets totalling about 3.5% of the orignal Head-to-Head Fund and all on underdogs, three of them playing away from home, and two line bets totalling just under 2% of the original Line Fund, one on an away underdog, and the other on an away favourite. Altogether, about 2.3% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk.