WoSHBODS has, for a while now, felt quite differently about the Lions’ chances, and that has manifested this week in a GF forecast that sees the Roos winning by about 11 points.

WAGERING

WoSHBODS’ opinion has translated into a small head-to-head wager and an even smaller line wager, which means we have:

• Roos win by 3 points or more: 30% x 0.78 x 2.6% + 60% x 0.89 x 0.3% = +0.8c

• Roos win by 1 to 2 points: 30% x 0.78 x 2.6c - 60% x 0.3c = +0.4c

• Roos lose: -30% x 2.6c - 60% x 0.3c = -1c