WoSHBODS has very different ideas about the relative chances of the four teams in this week’s semi-finals, which sees it forecasting comfortable wins by both favourites.

Part of the reason for this is that, as currently parameterised, WoSHBODS does not update team ratings after Round 8 - a decision that will be reviewed in light of the new data provided by the 2023 season.

WAGERING

WoSHBODS’ confidence has translated into some large wagers, especially in the Adelaide v Sydney game.

In total, we have just under 14% of the original Head-to-Head Fund at risk and just under 9% of the original Line Fund at risk. Combined, that means just under 10% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk.

You can see the various impacts on the Combined Portfolio across all possible game outcomes in the Ready Reckoner below.

Clearly, the Adelaide wagers will have the largest say in profitability this week. A Crows win by 17 points or more will guarantee a profit for the round, and any other result will guarantee a loss.