WoSHBODS tipped only five from nine winners this week, but also recorded a Margin MAE of 15.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11 points per game.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 54 from 81 (67%) for accuracy, 20.7 for Margin MAE, and 18.2 for Totals MAE.

TEAM STATISTICS

Firstly, in the table at right, we look at the MAEs by team for WoSHBODS, and find that Adelaide’s, West Coast’s, and Port Adelaide’s margins have bern easiest to predict. In contrast, margins for Carlton, Melbourne, Geelong, and Hawthorn have been hardest to predict.

Richmond remains the only non-Victorian team with an MAE under the all-team average of 20.6 points per game, although Collingwood and North Melbourne do not miss by much.

There remains no clear relationship between teams’ ladder positions and the precision with which WoSHBODS is forecasting their game margins.

Next, the log probability scores associated with each team, based on the probability estimates that WoSHBODS has attached to them in each game.

Here we find that WoSHBODS has still done best with Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Essendon, and worst with Carlton, Melbourne, Geelong, and Fremantle, which are the only four teams that have generated negative log probability score for WoSHBODS.

WAGERS

WoSHBODS was quite qctive again this week, and saw all three Funds return a profit for the first time this season. The Head-to-Head Fund rose by just over 3.5c, the Line Fund by just under 5.5c, and the Overs/Unders Fund by 10.5c. That lifted the Combined Portfolio by over 11c and has it now up by 43c on the season from a +28% ROI and a 1.6 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Dashboard metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder are:

• MoS Win Production Function: +0.95

• Points Conceded per Game: +0.95

• Scoring Shots Conceded per Game: +0.94

• Goals Conceded per Game: +0.93

• % of Quarters Won: +0.89

• Q2 Performances: +0.85

• Points Scored per Game: +0.79

• Goals Scored per Game: +0.77

• Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.72

The metrics least correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.45

Geelong and St kilda are now, perhaps, the team most surprisingly not in the Top 8, given their scoring statistics.

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It reveals that:

• There is only one undefeated (North Melbourne) and one winless (Gold Coast) team

• Collingwood are yet to win or draw a Q3

• Fremantle have outscored their opponents by 2.5:1 in Q4s

• Brisbane have outscored their opponents by over 2.6:1 in Q2s

• North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by over 4:1 in Q2s and Q3s, and 3.6:1 in Q1s.

• Collingwood have been outscored by their opponents by more than 12:1 in Q3s

• North Melbourne have converted at 56% and allowed their opponents to convert at only 44%, and have generated almost 16 Scoring Shots per game while allowing their opponents to generate fewer than 6.

• Carlton have converted at 36% and allowed their opponents to convert at only 46%, and have generated only just over 8 Scoring Shots per game while allowing their opponents to generate almost 14.

• GWS have scored only 10% of their points in Q2s, and Collingwood only 6% in Q3s

• Melbourne have scored in Q1 42% of all the points they’ve scored, Carlton 34% in Q1s, Collingwood 34% in Q2s, and GWS 36% in Q3s.

• West Coast have converted at 63% in Q1s and 29% in Q4s.

• Sydney have converted at 67% in Q4s and 33% in Q3s.