Matter of Stats

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AFLW 2024 - Round 5 Results - Meh

Tony Corke

WoSHBODS tipped just 5 of 11 winners this week and also recorded a Margin MAE of 24.7 points per game and a Totals MAE of 21.4 points per game.

That took the season-long figures to 29 from 49 (59%) for accuracy, 24.6 for Margin MAE, and 19.9 for Totals MAE.

WAGERS

Only the Overs/Unders Fund was profitable this week, but not by enough to fully offset the losses of the Head-to-Head and Line Funds. In aggregate, the Combined Portfolio fell by just over 3c to be up now by 11.1c, that on a +12% ROI and a 0.95 turn.

(Note that, due to an Excel formula error, last week’s profits were overstated by 4c)

TEAM DASHBOARD

The metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder rankings (which I order, now that we have teams having played different numbers of games, based firstly on competition points per game played, and then on percentage) are:

  • Q2 Performances: +0.86

  • Points Conceded per Game: +0.85

  • Goals Conceded per Game: +0.85

  • Scoring Shots Conceded per Game: +0.84

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.83

  • % of Quarters Won: +0.81

  • Points Scored per Game: +0.73

The metrics least correlated are:

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.35

  • Q1 Performances: +0.44

At this early stage, and based on those numbers, Geelong and GWS are maybe a little unlucky not to be in the Top 8.

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It reveals that:

  • there is only one undefeated and one winless teams

  • Adelaide are yet to lose a Q3

  • Fremantle are yet to win or draw a Q1 and Collingwood a Q3

  • Fremantle have, however, outscored their opponents by more than 6:1 in Q4s

  • St Kilda have outcored their opponents by almost 5:1 in Q1s but been outscored almost 2:1 in Q4s

  • Collingwood have been outscored by their opponents by over 12:1 in Q3s

  • North Melbourne have converted at 56%, while Adelaide have allowed opponents to convert at only 38%

  • Carlton have converted at only 34%, and Melbourne have allowed opponents to convert at 64%.

  • Fremantle have scored only 5% of their points in Q1s, Melbourne and GWS 8% in Q2s, and Collingwood 6% in Q3s

  • Essendon have conceded only 12% of the total they’ve conceded and St Kilda only 6% in Q1s. Fremantle have conceded only 9% in Q4s.

  • St Kilda have conceded 44% of all the points they’ve conceded in Q4s, Frematle 43% in Q1s, and Essendon 40% in Q2s.