A very good week for WoSHBODS, with a season low Margin MAE of 13.0 points per game, a Totals MAE of 15.3 points per game, a season high LPS, and the first 9 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.

We can break down that overall Margin MAE of 19.6 points per game into team-by-team contributions, which we do in the table at right and which shows that WoSHBODS has been particularly precise in game margins for matches involving the Pies, Dogs, Dees, Tigers, Roos, and Blues, and particularly imprecise in game margins for matches involving the Giants, Lions, Crows, Swans, and Saints.

Looking solely at the four expansion teams, we have Hawthorn slightly under the all-team average, Essendon exactly at the average, and Port Adelaide and Sydney much higher than the average.

Altogether, nine teams have MAEs below the all-team average, and eight have MAEs above the all-team average.

We can also break down the overall Margin MAE based on the size of the eventual victory, which we do in the table at left and which shows that, still, it has been the larger victories where the forecasts have been least accurate

In fact, there is a fairly direct relationship between the size of the victory and the size of the average absolute error.

What’s also true is that WoSHBODS has tended to be more accurate in games that were won by relatively large margins. It is 21 from 36 (58%) in games won by under 3 goals, and 30.5 from 36 (85%) in games won by 3 goals or more.

The Ranking on Team Metrics table appears below and continues to show the relative unimportance of Own Scoring Shot Conversion this season, with the Top 8 teams on the ladder now including six of the bottom nine teams on that metric.

In other news, the Win Production Function continues to provide a reliable indicator of each team’s expected wins. All 18 teams are between -1.1 and +1.2 wins on this metric, and the average absolute difference between actual and expected wins is just 0.66 wins.

Lastly, here is the full Team Dashboard (now with more detail about quarter-by-quarter scoring), which shows that:

• Collingwood have conceded only 17 goals in 32 quarters

• Essendon, who sit 10th, have scored more goals than five of the teams in the Top 8 in the ladder

• Gold Coast are in 9th but have an 81 percentage

• Sydney have scored just under half their points in Q1s

• Carlton have scored just over 40% of their points in Q1s

• Fremantle have conceded about 40% of their points in Q4s

• Brisbane Lions have conceded over 75% of their points in Q1s and Q3s

• Sydney have won only 4 quarters all season (and none in Q3), which is four fewer than any other team

• Sydney have been outscored by their opponents roughly 3:2 in Q1s, 3:1 in Q2s, 6:1 in Q3s, and 4:1 in Q4s

• Collingwood have won 24 and drawn 2 of their 32 quarters

• St Kilda have won 75% and have a 134 percentage in Q4s despite sitting 14th on the ladder